Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 11.507595 14.100060 16.994469 20.444411 24.422540 28.843775 34.106110
2026-01-11 7.923574 11.255073 15.395085 20.824723 27.657716 35.868555 46.368522
2026-01-18 6.029247 9.648113 14.538323 21.425989 30.652679 42.351533 58.043237
2026-01-25 4.496953 8.056045 13.252025 21.048398 32.067164 46.677300 67.048896
2026-02-01 3.570893 7.087029 12.583807 21.290004 34.154408 51.841446 77.275115
2026-02-08 2.748572 6.063283 11.614894 20.884535 35.173108 55.492313 85.546496
2026-02-15 2.090662 5.143376 10.623121 20.255745 35.712730 58.395449 92.824410
2026-02-22 1.761689 4.751873 10.434794 20.844762 38.083500 64.000940 104.120592
2026-03-01 1.384963 4.154568 9.768270 20.527234 38.957818 67.387146 112.310107
2026-03-08 1.124150 3.733074 9.348373 20.561699 40.358793 71.590839 121.831110
2026-03-15 0.838993 3.154303 8.505962 19.712129 40.183704 73.300513 127.631502
2026-03-22 0.716439 2.958554 8.420260 20.252870 42.394929 78.844272 139.458000
2026-03-29 0.579488 2.686610 8.153539 20.480264 44.196331 84.021482 151.271602
2026-04-05 0.473949 2.468951 7.974306 20.870153 46.335882 89.895228 164.493734
2026-04-12 0.396974 2.311571 7.906408 21.473101 48.893879 96.567592 179.225327
2026-04-19 0.297556 2.012757 7.412784 21.094901 49.563502 100.063800 188.953706
2026-04-26 0.238586 1.841135 7.215751 21.336930 51.420540 105.654360 202.270804
2026-05-03 0.175462 1.600626 6.764249 20.930757 51.956898 108.946216 211.884821
2026-05-10 0.123196 1.362750 6.252129 20.300870 51.974499 111.292176 219.969310
2026-05-17 0.102270 1.289761 6.240631 20.890915 54.526743 118.281672 236.115332
2026-05-24 0.073490 1.128111 5.889289 20.572833 55.144470 121.763843 246.369809
2026-05-31 0.055176 1.018238 5.685732 20.607359 56.505341 126.655856 259.192285
2026-06-07 0.034645 0.843962 5.181875 19.756299 55.861460 127.757273 265.425944